This week the United Nations published their forecast on global population growth for the next 80 years. It’s an important dataset calculated by one of the best statisticians from around the world and it gives a shape for some economic and social programes which depend obviously on this kind of researches, at least it’s a good indicator of nowadays social policies whitin different continents and countries.
Let’s not talk too much and go directly to the data.
The graphic above shows a clear global trend of growth untill 2100, expressed in +157% increase (based on median curve). The image is changhing when we go deeper and the result is more unexpected than we could have thought.
While the aggregate growth is clear there is the young population which keeps increasing slowly.
And now you see a substantial growth of adult subjects, it means the old population increases and so do the cost of its maintenance (healthcare, social insurance, public debt).
Now let’s take a look on different continents and their population flows.
Asia
The Asian continent, among the others, is the most rapidly growing in terms of income and and investments. To fit in with its needs, Asia is obligated to maintain a high level of population growth that must absorb market’s huge offer. But there is still place for outgoing and so asians are mooving in great numbers outside their own countries.
China – The population of People’s Republic of China (Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau excluded) is supposed to decrease by -29% to 1 billion until 2100 from its peak which will be reached by 2030. It could be explained by the simple fact that the new genereations will grow their standards of life and correlate it to those of the West, making less children than it was in the past. A big part of chinese are already mooving out the country choosing as their new home Europe, Australia and North America. The connections that these emmigrants have with their homeland will represent a huge leverage for China in its global policies, strenghtening its ties with the rest of the world, especially with its most important financial and economic centres where chinese companies are actually present and largely represented.
India – The biggest democracy of the panet will face a huge growth of population and it’s meant to reach 1.7 billion until 2060 (+30% increase in comparison with actual data that summs 1.3 billion people) to reverse its trend and decrease by -12% at the end of the century. The external investments in India continue arriving due to its promissing forecasts and a huge internal market which, by the way, needs more regulation and predictability in order to be more efficient for both internal and foreign capital.
Pakistan – This central Asia state is goind to double its population by 2100 with an increase of +84% compared to actual available data which means Pakistan is going to become one of the most dense populated countries on the world. The forecast is pretty clear, Pakistan will grow until 2080, when it will reach its peak at 390 milions inhabitants and will keep maintaining this quote for a long period.
Africa
Africa is one of the biggest continents by surface and it’s becoming also one of the most populated, despite the famine and civil wars which are spread across the continent. The economic and social growth is linked mostly to Africa’s baby-boom during last decades and the trend seems to continue for a very long time.
Nigeria – one of the richest african countries due to it’s huge oil reserves is also known for the presence of Boko Haram, a terrorist organization which pledget allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Levante (ISIL, ISIS, Daesh). Despite corruption and social insecurity, the nigerian population keeps its positive trend of growth and is supposed to increase by +400% until 2100. It’s a colosal growth that seems to be unsustainable for the country with limited agricultural resources and prices for crude oil decreasing for the last 5 years. The most realistic scenario in that case will be a mass exodus of nigerians outside their homeland in search for a better life. Due to its ties with the Albion (of which Nigeria was a colony in the past) the country will provide a huge amount of human capital for the U.K. but with no professional skills behind.
South Africa – Part of the BRICS, South Africa is an emerging county with huge potential and a cultural richness like few others. It’s fertile soil and rich in minerals underground are providing SA with mostly all the necessary commodities. Despite the fact that South Africa is a prevalent black country, its population adopted a western style of living that means less children while focusing on career and self development. But that consideration isn’t a premise for stoping growing and so South Africa is going to reach 75 milion inhabitants (+36%) by the end of 2080’s and stabilize that level for the next years.
Middle East
The battleground of interests, the Middle East, is nowaday one of the most dangerous areas in the world. Despite all the problems the local population keeps its own tradition of big family and so the number of inhabitants continues to growing.
Iraq – After its invasion in 2003 by the American troops, a sectarian war which started in 2006 and the insurgent suni-lead actions that grew up into a co-existence of the official Government and a terrorist entity on its north-western territory, Iraq is facing a multilateral threath. The war that took thousands of human lifes did non stop the growth and so by the end of the century, in case of its survival as a State, its population will reach 140 milions (+350%). During short period of 2014/2015 iraqis were fleeing their homes in order to save their lifes from ISIS, the most significant part of them flew to Europe or at least tried to arrive there, many of them are displaced now in Turkey, Lebanon or Jordan.
Vladislav Gonta 